We've also never seen credit be this cheap. So it makes sense that companies would take on lots of cheap debt. The profit to debt ratio is less important than the strings attached to that debt.
The US has done a masterful job at exporting high margin products. Apple, Google, all kinds of enterprise software, entertainment. And importing all kinds of low margin, competitive products like electronics and clothing. And, private equity is much bigger than it used to be. Buffett's point was about returns to labor v returns to capital. So the 0.7 doesn't work when the labor and capital and returns aren't dispersed the same way.
Fwiw, Buffett is putting a lot of money to work across a number of industries as we speak.
we all heard the same thing in 1999 and 2007: "the smart money is buying" maybe, maybe not, the smart money has no reason to tell us the truth, many reasons to hide what they are doing and access to investments that normies don't
no crystal ball here, but things look like they could get very bad
We are talking about the Buffett indicator... named after Buffett... who said at the time stocks were too expensive, and wasn't buying.
He is buying now and you don't have to take his word - Berkshire files a 13-f with the SEC. It shows lots of buying. If that filing is materially incorrect, he's going to jail along with a few of his guys - very unlikely.
last I looked he bought a bunch of energy stocks right before the govt. decided to freeze the second largest supplier out of the market, I think he'll be alright and probably won't be going to jail
we'll see, let's check in in six months, maybe this time its different
https://www.longtermtrends.net/market-cap-to-gdp-the-buffett...
this could get really, really bad, in a way most people aren't prepared to think about